Presented by Mark Gallagher
General market news
• The Treasury curve has experienced a sharp move upward during the month of September. The benchmark 10-year yield finished the week just above 2.60 percent, up nearly 26 basis points from one month ago.
• Equity markets trended lower last week, led by the S&P 500, which lost 1.05 percent. Other domestic indices fared slightly better but were also in the red for the week. International markets, on the other hand, declined more than their domestic peers, as the dollar continued to strengthen.
• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this Wednesday is the second-to-last meeting at which the Fed will likely continue tapering the current QE program. We expect that the Fed will end QE at the subsequent meeting on October 29.
| Equity Index | Week-to-Date % | Month-to-Date % | Year-to-Date % | 12-Month % |
| S&P 500 | –1.05% | –0.80% | 9.00% | 20.07% |
| Nasdaq Composite | –0.31% | –0.24% | 10.32% | 24.28% |
| DJIA | –0.81% | –0.57% | 4.24% | 13.06% |
| MSCI EAFE | –1.27% | –1.16% | 1.94% | 9.99% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | –3.15% | –2.31% | 8.18% | 10.56% |
| Russell 2000 | –0.77% | –1.11% | 0.62% | 11.55% |
Source: Bloomberg
| Fixed Income Index | Month-to-Date % | Year-to-Date % | 12-Month % |
| U.S. Broad Market | –1.12% | 3.86% | 5.24% |
| U.S. Treasury | –1.24% | 3.02% | 3.60% |
| U.S. Mortgages | –0.66% | 3.67% | 5.13% |
| Municipal Bond | –0.41% | 7.74% | 10.34% |
Source: Bloomberg
What to look forward to
In addition to the FOMC meeting, a number of important economic data points are being released this week. Industrial Production will be reported on Monday and is expected to rise.
Producer Price Index data, expected to remain fairly flat as a whole, will be released on Tuesday, while Wednesday will be highlighted by CPI, which is expected to increase slightly in continuation of an upward trend, and the FOMC announcements.
Finally, Housing Starts, to be announced Thursday, are projected to rise.
Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Barclays Capital Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million. The Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index measures the performance of intermediate (1- to 10-year) U.S. TIPS.
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Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Avenue, North Saint Paul, MN, 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallaghe.com.
Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.
© 2014 Commonwealth Financial Network®