Presented by Mark Gallagher
General market news
• The yield on the 10-year Treasury opened at 2.21 percent early Monday morning, slightly above the lowest level we’ve seen in more than three weeks. Although it seems that a majority of investors, along with the fed funds futures, expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December, the Treasury markets are actually signaling more uncertainty. The 30-year yield opened below 3 percent on Monday, again at the lowest level we’ve seen in three weeks.
• U.S equity markets were relatively flat during last week’s holiday-shortened trading session.
• The S&P 500 increased 0.08 percent, as there was little in the way of news to move markets.
• Elsewhere, emerging markets sold off; weak commodity prices and a strong dollar drove the decline.
| Equity Index | Week-to-Date | Month-to-Date | Year-to-Date | 12-Month |
| S&P 500 | 0.08% | 0.76% | 3.48% | 3.22% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 0.46% | 1.65% | 9.56% | 8.38% |
| DJIA | –0.10% | 1.13% | 2.18% | 2.30% |
| MSCI EAFE | –0.47% | –1.22% | 1.42% | –2.05% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | –2.02% | –2.48% | –11.47% | –15.47% |
| Russell 2000 | 2.35% | 3.62% | 0.99% | 3.87% |
Source: Bloomberg
| Fixed Income Index | Month-to-Date | Year-to-Date | 12-Month |
| U.S. Broad Market | –0.32% | 0.82% | 0.91% |
| U.S. Treasury | –0.44% | 0.98% | 1.12% |
| U.S. Mortgages | –0.24% | 1.44% | 1.59% |
| Municipal Bond | 0.33% | 2.51% | 3.03% |
Source: Morningstar Direct
What to look forward to
The service sector will receive some attention this week, with releases of both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing data. The ISM Manufacturing survey is expected to remain fairly flat, while the ISM Nonmanufacturing index is likely to pull back but remain at healthy levels.
The main focus this week, however, will be Friday’s Employment Report, where expectations are for a gain of 220,000 jobs.
Disclosures: Certain sections of this commentary contain forward-looking statements that are based on our reasonable expectations, estimates, projections, and assumptions. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks and uncertainties, which are difficult to predict. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment by the public. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The S&P 500 is based on the average performance of the 500 industrial stocks monitored by Standard & Poor’s. The Nasdaq Composite Index measures the performance of all issues listed in the Nasdaq Stock Market, except for rights, warrants, units, and convertible debentures. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is computed by summing the prices of the stocks of 30 large companies and then dividing that total by an adjusted value, one which has been adjusted over the years to account for the effects of stock splits on the prices of the 30 companies. Dividends are reinvested to reflect the actual performance of the underlying securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization index designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of 26 emerging market countries in Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific Basin. The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted performance benchmark for investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues, including government, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The U.S. Treasury Index is based on the auctions of U.S. Treasury bills, or on the U.S. Treasury’s daily yield curve. The Barclays Capital Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index is an unmanaged market value-weighted index of 15- and 30-year fixed-rate securities backed by mortgage pools of the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae), and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (FHLMC), and balloon mortgages with fixed-rate coupons. The Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index includes investment-grade, tax-exempt, and fixed-rate bonds with long-term maturities (greater than 2 years) selected from issues larger than $50 million. The Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Index measures the performance of intermediate (1- to 10-year) U.S. TIPS.
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Mark Gallagher is a financial advisor located at Gallagher Financial Services at 2586 East 7th Ave, North Saint Paul, MN 55109. He offers securities and advisory services as an Investment Adviser Representative of Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. He can be reached at 651-774-8759 or at mark@markgallagher.com.
Authored by the Investment Research team at Commonwealth Financial Network.
© 2015 Commonwealth Financial Network®